Toys and Tariffs (US customers)

[andrewsaurus rex]

Obviously it's hard to know what the specific consequences of any of this will be, but it's worth pointing out that despite being less than one twentieth of the world's population, the US is more than a third of the global consumer market. For goods as frivolous as dinosaur toys, that fraction is likely even higher. While the EU (even without the UK) and China combine for a larger market than the US in PPP terms, it's easy to imagine that some of the toys that might have been planned could get canceled due to diminished sales, or that some upstart companies whose capital is stretched thin might even be in jeopardy.

I'm basing this on the numbers here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_consumer_markets

Part of the reason for that disparity in consumers is because most manufactures cater to the US market, because it is so concentrated and therefore more efficient.  This makes a lot of goods like toys hard to find by consumers in other parts of the world, where the demand is more scattered and the importing into many different countries more complicated.  US tariffs could cause/force a shift in that dynamic making product easier to find in those parts of the world and harder to find/afford in the US, increasing consumption by consumers in those other countries.  Also, that high consumption rate by US consumers will almost certainly drastically decline if prices sky rocket due to those same tariffs.

So while there will be some pain, many toy companies can survive by shifting their markets.  But without doubt some companies will probably go under, and retailers too, if the tariffs are prolonged.  At a minimum it will probably mean less variety of toys produced as manufacturers will only want to release sure fire sellers and not want to take chances with subjects that may have lower demand.

[Crackington]

Lots more rexes then....

[Over9K]

Obviously it's hard to know what the specific consequences of any of this will be, but it's worth pointing out that despite being less than one twentieth of the world's population, the US is more than a third of the global consumer market. For goods as frivolous as dinosaur toys, that fraction is likely even higher. While the EU (even without the UK) and China combine for a larger market than the US in PPP terms, it's easy to imagine that some of the toys that might have been planned could get canceled due to diminished sales, or that some upstart companies whose capital is stretched thin might even be in jeopardy.

I'm basing this on the numbers here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_consumer_markets

Part of the reason for that disparity in consumers is because most manufactures cater to the US market, because it is so concentrated and therefore more efficient.  This makes a lot of goods like toys hard to find by consumers in other parts of the world, where the demand is more scattered and the importing into many different countries more complicated.  US tariffs could cause/force a shift in that dynamic making product easier to find in those parts of the world and harder to find/afford in the US, increasing consumption by consumers in those other countries.  Also, that high consumption rate by US consumers will almost certainly drastically decline if prices sky rocket due to those same tariffs.

So while there will be some pain, many toy companies can survive by shifting their markets.  But without doubt some companies will probably go under, and retailers too, if the tariffs are prolonged.  At a minimum it will probably mean less variety of toys produced as manufacturers will only want to release sure fire sellers and not want to take chances with subjects that may have lower demand.

These.

When you factor in that our hobby's current most favorite Chinese dinosaur toy makers aren't actually "mainstream" in the USA (almost no name recognition among the general public, not sold at Walmart/Target/Michaels), and may have limited concessionaires in the EU and then find the third largest consumer market also slowing economically, which is their largest market traditionally, they may find survival difficult.

Mattel, Schleich, Safari these companies should hopefully weather the storm by moving production. I fear Showanna may be done before they really blossom into one of our favorite makers, they might be too small. I fear REBOR, which already shows unrelated frayed edges, may not survive.

PNSO and HLG for whom domestic sales and exports to the US are the focus, will require their home market to remain robust for survival to be assured. Losing a large part of both the single largest and third largest consumer markets at the same time might be too much to bear.

[Trenchcoated Rebbachisaur]

Maybe the big Asian companies could survive (/survive easier) by catering towards alternative markets, like Europe and. Uh. Australia and Brazil...? Maybe Japan and South Korea, also. With a focus on still-famous local darling animals (Plateosaurus, Australovenator, Allosaurus europeaus, Muttaburrasaurus and such) and of-WWD-fame releases for the next couple years?

I do have some hope that PNSO, at least, might simply hunker down and slow/pause releases, and pick them back up later, since the figures seem to be more of a side business for them. But yeah, I am definitely worried about HLG and Rebor, and very worried about Showanna.

[Eatmycar]

I'd wager PNSO will be fine - they might lower their toy output, but as mentioned above, toys aren't the core of their business.

Mattel will likely not be impacted by the tariffs themselves when it comes to Jurassic. A lot of the stuff that came out for Dominion and later seems to have been produced in Vietnam, which, while it will still be subjected to a tariff, will not be hit as harsh directly. But a lot of the smaller stuff like Attack Packs and Savage Strikes struggle to make it to American shelves as is.

I think we'll really see everyone get hit in some way, though. Tariffs will make it harder for Americans to get goods in general and discretionary spending will go down. A lot. After all, as cool as a fully-articulated 2 foot long megatheropod is, it isn't going to be making money for the family. It isn't going to be putting groceries in the pantry. As a result, I'd sincerely not be surprised if we see toy companies in general just producing less. I think we're not going to see the extent of the damage that these tariffs will do (nevermind the constant flux we see in the percentage of tariffs in general) for a while, but I worry a bit for companies like Beasts of the Mesozoic.

[thomasw100]

Obviously it's hard to know what the specific consequences of any of this will be, but it's worth pointing out that despite being less than one twentieth of the world's population, the US is more than a third of the global consumer market. For goods as frivolous as dinosaur toys, that fraction is likely even higher. While the EU (even without the UK) and China combine for a larger market than the US in PPP terms, it's easy to imagine that some of the toys that might have been planned could get canceled due to diminished sales, or that some upstart companies whose capital is stretched thin might even be in jeopardy.

I'm basing this on the numbers here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_consumer_markets

Part of the reason for that disparity in consumers is because most manufactures cater to the US market, because it is so concentrated and therefore more efficient.  This makes a lot of goods like toys hard to find by consumers in other parts of the world, where the demand is more scattered and the importing into many different countries more complicated.  US tariffs could cause/force a shift in that dynamic making product easier to find in those parts of the world and harder to find/afford in the US, increasing consumption by consumers in those other countries.  Also, that high consumption rate by US consumers will almost certainly drastically decline if prices sky rocket due to those same tariffs.

So while there will be some pain, many toy companies can survive by shifting their markets.  But without doubt some companies will probably go under, and retailers too, if the tariffs are prolonged.  At a minimum it will probably mean less variety of toys produced as manufacturers will only want to release sure fire sellers and not want to take chances with subjects that may have lower demand.

These.

When you factor in that our hobby's current most favorite Chinese dinosaur toy makers aren't actually "mainstream" in the USA (almost no name recognition among the general public, not sold at Walmart/Target/Michaels), and may have limited concessionaires in the EU and then find the third largest consumer market also slowing economically, which is their largest market traditionally, they may find survival difficult.

Mattel, Schleich, Safari these companies should hopefully weather the storm by moving production. I fear Showanna may be done before they really blossom into one of our favorite makers, they might be too small. I fear REBOR, which already shows unrelated frayed edges, may not survive.

PNSO and HLG for whom domestic sales and exports to the US are the focus, will require their home market to remain robust for survival to be assured. Losing a large part of both the single largest and third largest consumer markets at the same time might be too much to bear.

Your level of doomsposting tops everything I have seen in this theread so far. I do by the way very much disagree with your evaluation.

Without any robust data on the sales share that any of the mentioned companies have in the US there is absolutely zero basis for any of these claims.

And there are several well established distributors for PNSO and Haolonggood in Europe, e.g. Everything Dinosaurus in the UK and Speelboer in the Netherlands amongst others.

[Faelrin]

Saw BBTS has a new FAQ put out.

https://www.bigbadtoystore.com/tariffs

Concerning that Vietnam is also getting hit, aside from China, as this will also impact Mattel's line (although some of their recent figures have been made in China, other then Vietnam). We're already seeing substantial cost cutting in the line with reduced paint apps post covid. I mean when the mainline figures are looking like the basic figures in terms of paint, that's pretty unfortunate.

I'm really concerned for the Creative Beast Stuff though. It's already a challenge for me to afford it without saving, in addition to collecting Mattel (and even cutting back on it as I did in 2022).

[Primeval12]

More frustrating news from Everything Dinosaur...
https://www.facebook.com/share/16RemGHzDm/

An important announcement from Everything Dinosaur for our American customers 🇺🇸.
There remains considerable confusion over tariffs on small parcels sent to the USA with the removal of the de minimis for prehistoric animal models orginating from China/HongKong.


We continue to work tirelessly to find a solution.
Please note only customers in the USA are affected.
We would like to assure our customers that Everything Dinosaur's sales to all other international markets continue without disruption.

So it looks like ordering internationally won't circumvent the tariffs...

[Shane]

Mattel, Schleich, Safari these companies should hopefully weather the storm by moving production.

It is not easy or even practical in many circumstances to simply "move production". It's not like flipping a switch. And for things like toys, there really is no other country than China that can achieve the capacity, skill level and infrastructure, quality and level of service as China. Companies like Mattel and Hasbro are able to shift a small amount of their production to Vietnam, but those are literally the #1 and #2 toy manufacturers on earth. Vietnam just does not have the capacity to support the entire toy industry the way China has.

Comparing Mattel (a company with approximately 34,000 employees) and Schleich (a company with approximately 400 employees) and Safari (a company with approximately 50 employees) does not really make sense, because there is a huge disparity in the ability of these respective companies to allocate resources necessary to set up production in other countries. There is massive investment involved in doing this, if it's even possible. It takes time, money, and lots of research.

If these tariffs are prolonged, small companies will not survive and even large companies will likely not exist in the way you think of them. Prices will go up, quality will go down, and you will likely have more limited options.

[suspsy]

Most if not all of the people who are strongly advocating for relocating production from China to America would never actually want to work in a factory.

A fatal flaw in the plan.

[bmathison1972]

Most if not all of the people who are strongly advocating for relocating production from China to America would never actually want to work in a factory.

A fatal flaw in the plan.

And even if they did, in order for the factory workers to earn a livable wage, the toy would be so expensive most won't buy it.

[Carnoking]

It has admittedly been more than a few years since high school english literature but I believe it was Shakespeare who wrote "To panic buy, or not to panic buy? That is the question"

[Primeval12]

It has admittedly been more than a few years since high school english literature but I believe it was Shakespeare who wrote "To panic buy, or not to panic buy? That is the question"

I totally have been panic buying... OOPS

[andrewsaurus rex]

Another problem with "moving production' is capacity.  Lots of companies may be contemplating moving production from China but alternative countries may just not be able to handle the surge in demand for their services, and toy factories can't just spring up over night.  It's akin to a public transit strike...people will just say 'take a taxi instead'.  Good luck finding one.

It's pretty much too late to panic buy toys, as May 2 is pretty close.  Express shipping is fast becoming the only option and that has costs all its own.  Also, if an item enters Customs on April 30 but isn't processed for a couple of days, which certainly happens not infrequently, and isn't processed until May 2, what happens?  My guess it will get tariffed.

[Over9K]

For these companies potentially moving production may be survival... and survival isn't easy. Also, I'm not saying it will happen overnight, either. Asia also isn't the only place to manufacture PVC toys. Mexico, South America are also viable homes for production.

PNSO and HLG are tied to the CDM (Chinese Domestic Market) in ways the other companies aren't. Moving production won't help (as much), if they've lost their two largest markets. Sure, they can reduce the tariffs, but that doesn't bring the CDM back.

[thomasw100]

For these companies potentially moving production may be survival... and survival isn't easy. Also, I'm not saying it will happen overnight, either. Asia also isn't the only place to manufacture PVC toys. Mexico, South America are also viable homes for production.

PNSO and HLG are tied to the CDM (Chinese Domestic Market) in ways the other companies aren't. Moving production won't help (as much), if they've lost their two largest markets. Sure, they can reduce the tariffs, but that doesn't bring the CDM back.

Repeating your unfounded claims of lost or collapsed markets starts feeling like spreading fear, uncertainty and doubt on purpose. There is nothing positive or useful to be gained from this.

[Shane]

For these companies potentially moving production may be survival... and survival isn't easy. Also, I'm not saying it will happen overnight, either. Asia also isn't the only place to manufacture PVC toys. Mexico, South America are also viable homes for production.

PNSO and HLG are tied to the CDM (Chinese Domestic Market) in ways the other companies aren't. Moving production won't help (as much), if they've lost their two largest markets. Sure, they can reduce the tariffs, but that doesn't bring the CDM back.

Unless a company is a juggernaut like Mattel, you're likely to see a lot of companies go out of business rather than move production. The expense involved is too substantial and there's no guarantee that wherever production is relocated to won't be hit with tariffs in the future, since there is currently very little reliable consistency in how tariffs are applied at the moment. No company is going to undertake the financial burdens of relocation during this level of volatility.

Mexico and South America have neither the capacity nor the skill level to match China in figurine production. Maybe someday that will change, but right now that's the reality. There is a reason that's where 80% of toys are manufactured. They have developed the infrastructure and skill set over decades that nowhere else can really compete with. Vietnam comes close because many of the facilities there have close ties to China.

Have you ever tried to establish a new channel for manufacturing? Because I have.

[Over9K]

For these companies potentially moving production may be survival... and survival isn't easy. Also, I'm not saying it will happen overnight, either. Asia also isn't the only place to manufacture PVC toys. Mexico, South America are also viable homes for production.

PNSO and HLG are tied to the CDM (Chinese Domestic Market) in ways the other companies aren't. Moving production won't help (as much), if they've lost their two largest markets. Sure, they can reduce the tariffs, but that doesn't bring the CDM back.

Unless a company is a juggernaut like Mattel, you're likely to see a lot of companies go out of business rather than move production. The expense involved is too substantial and there's no guarantee that wherever production is relocated to won't be hit with tariffs in the future, since there is currently very little reliable consistency in how tariffs are applied at the moment. No company is going to undertake the financial burdens of relocation during this level of volatility.

Mexico and South America have neither the capacity nor the skill level to match China in figurine production. Maybe someday that will change, but right now that's the reality. There is a reason that's where 80% of toys are manufactured. They have developed the infrastructure and skill set over decades that nowhere else can really compete with. Vietnam comes close because many of the facilities there have close ties to China.

Have you ever tried to establish a new channel for manufacturing? Because I have.

If they are to survive, will production be in China?

No, I don't think so.

Literally every other country is at the negotiating table, making their deals now. Many of these countries are turning away from China. China may soon find itself alone on the world stage. If China drags their feet too much longer, the US will "set the deal" as they've been stating this week, and I doubt China will find those terms agreeable.

I might be forecasting doom, or perhaps that doom is just a dawning reality. It's not like dinosaur toys will go extinct... things will just look different for a while. We have proven there is a market for scientifically accurate dinosaurs, and I think that will continue.

[Shane]

If they are to survive, will production be in China?

No, I don't think so.

Literally every other country is at the negotiating table, making their deals now. Many of these countries are turning away from China. China may soon find itself alone on the world stage. If China drags their feet too much longer, the US will "set the deal" as they've been stating this week, and I doubt China will find those terms agreeable.

I might be forecasting doom, or perhaps that doom is just a dawning reality. It's not like dinosaur toys will go extinct... things will just look different for a while. We have proven there is a market for scientifically accurate dinosaurs, and I think that will continue.

China is doing the opposite of finding itself alone on the world stage. It is making deals with other countries and is increasing its global presence and influence.

This is getting into political territory so I'm not going to continue this discussion, but rest assured China is very well equipped to handle a trade war.

[Over9K]

There is nothing positive or useful to be gained from this.

Indeed.

Moving on.