Trade wars and it's effect on Dino Toys

[Ivysaur]

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[Loon]

I've got a bad feeling about this. Given the turn similar threads have taken, I don't see this thread being around long, or particularly pleasant. Especially given the aversion to political debate expressed in the forum rules.

[BlueKrono]

Economics can be separated from politics and discussed. Maybe a good rule of thumb would be not mentioning any particular political parties or individuals who work in the government. I am interested to hear other people weigh in on this topic, especially those outside the United States. I have faith we can do so respectfully.

[ITdactyl]

I'm sure we can all have a nice discussion about this without personally attacking members or saying anything derogatory towards "personalities".

That said, Hasbro has already made moves to relocate the bulk of their production from China to an undisclosed location.  We're not sure if other companies will follow suit.

I am expecting changes in the price and quality of toys, though this remains to be seen.  Obviously there will be a period of adjustment.  We'll probably see the effects of this "trade war" in Hasbro's 2019 lineup of toys (since they're claiming 2018 is a done deal).

[amargasaurus cazaui]

Possible we are already seeing the advance ripple waves from this...onsider decisions by Battat to cease production of at least a few models while seeming to be resistant to releasing any further figures from the line...which would be made likely and painted in China...

[Faelrin]

@ITdactyl Do you mean the Jurassic World stuff? Because if so, Mattel is the one who has the license to that currently, not Hasbro. If that is the case, then that sounds interesting. I wonder how it might affect things going forward.

[SBell]

In the short term, there probably won't be much for changes.

However, for many companies, they are closely tied to overseas manufacture. This means that there is the potential for increased costs for everything (not just dinosaur toys, which are of course the most important consumer good!  )

Whether a company moves its production or tries to weather a trade war, production costs will go up, and that means that, eventually retail costs will probably also rise.

Or, production levels will decrease. Or companies will shrink or fold. Back in the mid 2000s China experienced a heavy hit in their plastics manufacturing, and a lot of producers folded operations. Which is why Chick Yuet prehistoric mammals ceased to be available...

Or production of new model will be scaled back.

The other thing we could see? Disruptions to distribution. We could potentially see distributors in some places refuse/reduce products from other places, at least temporarily. Or reduce the number of times they bring in shipments, which means things run out faster.

And all of this is impacted by so many potential ifs, ands, and buts. Like assuming people behave rationally. Who knows--other than, we, the consumers, will likely pay more everywhere.

[ITdactyl]

@Faelrin , you're right.  Hasbro doesn't have a lot of dinosaur related products (at the moment) and their hand in the JP franchise is handled by their partner Takara Tomy.  I just cited Hasbro as an example of a company that confirmed their decision to move [the majority of their] production out of China because of the current situation.  I'm curious if any of the companies that produce dinosaur toys follow suit.

[Simon]

Economics can be separated from politics and discussed. Maybe a good rule of thumb would be not mentioning any particular political parties or individuals who work in the government. I am interested to hear other people weigh in on this topic, especially those outside the United States. I have faith we can do so respectfully.

Cue Yoda voice:  "Much naive faith has this one! Learn he will..." 

[DinoToyForum]

Economics can be separated from politics and discussed. Maybe a good rule of thumb would be not mentioning any particular political parties or individuals who work in the government. I am interested to hear other people weigh in on this topic, especially those outside the United States. I have faith we can do so respectfully.

Cue Yoda voice:  "Much naive faith has this one! Learn he will..." 

The thread was doing just fine until you posted this. Since it is an unprovoked personal jibe against Blue Kronos you will understand my decision to ban you. Your post might seem inoccuous on the face of it, but in the context of your long history of breaking forum rules, of having been banned several time previously on both versions of the forum, and knowing that you were on your very last life line following your last offence, I take such provocation seriously.

[Minmiminime]

I'm hoping that if there is any disruption to distribution or production, it'll eventually work itself out. I'd considered it briefly but feel it's just too horrid a thought to contemplate just how difficult it might get in the next few years 😱 Might be best just to get all the models you want now, while you can! I think I'm going to do that. The preciouuuuuuusssss....

[Faelrin]

@ITdactyl Oh so you did mean Hasbro. That is interesting though. Hopefully things work out well.

Anyways I really do hope nothing too bad happens with production, or shipping of figures in the future, or raising prices for the different companies that we usually purchase our figures from (such as Safari Ltd, Papo, CollectA, etc). This has been a really good time to be a collector for dinosaur and other prehistoric figures lately, due to all the exciting products being released that it would be a shame for it to be hampered in any way. Since I have minimal understanding of this stuff, I'll try not to worry too much, and keep on collecting as I have been.

[stargatedalek]

Any effects on toys this has will be secondary, it's mostly in regards to food and raw materials.

What we may see for example is the discrepancy with the US dollar grow larger as other countries are less equipped to last out in the long haul. So it probably will make it more expensive, though not more difficult, for us in other countries to acquire US produced toys.

[Shonisaurus]

I believe that the shipping of dinosaur toy figures is not and will not be affected by commercial wars. I understand that the problem that all the members of the forum of any nation face is the customs and tariff services in which they often retain packages with reason or without reason and that is something independent of commercial wars.

You have to pay customs duties for certain package shipments and my honest opinion is to find out first of all which packages are subject to tariff costs by the tax agencies.

In Spain packages worth or equal to 150 euros (shipping costs included) are going to impose tax rates yes or yes, and is more than being subject to customs taxes you can get in a good mess if you try to defraud the Treasury . I understand that in the rest of the nations around the world the same thing happens.

My opinion before buying a figure or a set of figures is to be informed by the postal agents and by the tax agency of your respective nation to take metaphorically speaking "letters in the matter".

Many times it does not compensate to try to deceive the customs services since they realize everything and it is better that the package already comes with paid tariffs as it happens with eBay's global shipping system. In my case, I buy figures from the United States or other non-EU countries for double the price, but I save the headaches that the customs service keeps the packages and in any case the tax agency can get into a mess of quite unpleasant consequences for my pocket and even for criminal purposes.

In any case you have to accept the rules and if you want to avoid problems before anything else you have to prevent there is no other alternative.

The cheap can often be expensive and I know it for bitter experience and that has happened and will happen whether or not there are commercial wars. You can not and should not defraud the tariff services and even less to the tax agency of our respective nations.

Is a friend's advice.

[Lizerd]

Ahhh, economics  , well here goes. My guess is that we can see products many products that come from other nations possibly have a higher price, most likely in tax or shipping.  As for other costs, I could expect that companies would likely want more money from each product as they will be sold less frequently. With quality I really can't guess much, but most likely we can expect a quality drop. So in a nutshell, we would be paying a higher price on a similar or worse product   
As for development of new products, ones based internationally or are not in china will likely have the same capacity to develop, but with manufacturing prices up, they will likely limit themselves to fit smaller more uniform designs with less creativity or innovations in their products. Again another nutshell, expect less products like the safari feathered t.rex and expect something like their older t.rex from wild but for the same price of the better feathered one. As for bulk products such as toothpaste we can expect a similar thing, but on a larger scale (sucks as refills on my scalpel blades will cost a lot more, oh also getting dino toys). Or maybe I am entirely wrong  but that is my two cents.

[Shonisaurus]

Unfortunately, trade wars will affect all nations and, in a certain way, damage us globally.

I understand that unfortunately it will harm the toy market. In our case we are all going to lose with that commercial war, both companies or toy brands, as sellers, distributors, and physical and online stores and of course also consumers.

[Lizerd]

Well, in trade wars, nobody wins...

[Halichoeres]

Well, in trade wars, nobody wins...

I think that's about the size of it.

For now it's just steel and agricultural products, but if we continue on this path I'm bracing to pay more for anything imported. I think some believe that this will somehow cause companies to move their manufacturing back to the US, but I think that's extremely unlikely. If China is singled out for tariffs, I could see manufacturing shifting to Vietnam or some other country that has so far escaped particular notice by the tariff proponents.

[Lizerd]

Its going to shift to... GREENLAND nah just kidding. Manufacturing will move to somewhere that they can easily exploit people and get away with it. That means anywhere that has a large population, does not have much respect globally or is not a big actor on the world stage, or has a lot of cheap resources. Most likely India is next. My guess is that the trade war, if it keeps going it is only going to get worse, which means no more imported stuff.

[ITdactyl]

Manufacturing will move to somewhere that they can easily exploit people and get away with it. That means anywhere that has a large population, does not have much respect globally or is not a big actor on the world stage, or has a lot of cheap resources.

OUCH.

I know it's not your intention, but the reality of your words hit hard - considering some manufacturers moved the production of some "toy components" to my country (Philippines).  Ah well, that's how the world currently works.